Most people assume Bitcoin mining is only for industrial data centers. That's true — if you're talking about profitable mining. But that's not what this is about. This is about sovereignty, lottery logic, and a surprising comparison.
"The smallest miner has the same chance per hash as the largest data center on Earth."
My Setup
I run two small ASIC miners on my own Umbrel node using the Public Pool app. No industrial rig — an experimental setup based on personal experience:
| Device | Chips | Hashrate | Power |
|---|---|---|---|
| BitForgeNano Ghost | 2× BM1370 | ~2.15 TH/s (Medium) | ~40W |
| NerdAxe Gamma | 1× BM1370 | ~1.00 TH/s | ~17W |
| Total | ~3.15 TH/s | ~57W |
Both miners connect to my own pool — no third party, no fees, no KYC. If a block is found, 3.125 BTC lands directly in my wallet. No middleman.
Both devices are from nerdminer.de — not a paid sponsorship. I recommend them because Julius and Timo resolved a hardware issue immediately and without any hassle. Best service I've ever experienced.
The Math
The Bitcoin network currently runs at approximately 1.1 ZH/s (zettahash — an all-time high). My share is tiny. But it's not zero.
My annual odds of finding a block:
52,560 blocks/year × (3.15 TH/s ÷ 1,100,000 TH/s) ≈ 1 in 6,700
52,560 because Bitcoin produces a block roughly every 10 minutes — 6 per hour, 144 per day, 52,560 per year.
Compared to the Lottery
| Solo Bitcoin Mining | German Lottery (6/49) | |
|---|---|---|
| Odds per attempt | 1 in ~846,000 (per block) | 1 in 139,838,160 |
| Attempts per year | 52,560 blocks | 104 draws |
| Annual jackpot odds | 1 in ~6,700 | 1 in ~1,350,000 |
| Running costs | ~€12/month (electricity) | ~€2–4 per ticket |
| Jackpot | 3.125 BTC (straight to wallet) | Cash prize (taxed, with KYC) |
Result: With this mining setup, the annual odds of hitting the "jackpot" are roughly 200× better than the German national lottery.
The Real Difference
The lottery costs money per ticket — every week, every draw, without exception. Playing twice a week at €3 per ticket adds up to roughly €312 per year. For a game you're going to lose.
Mining runs automatically, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. The only ongoing cost is electricity — at ~57 watts, that's around €12 per month.
Then there's the fundamental difference in what winning actually means:
- A lottery jackpot is centralized, state-controlled, anonymous only on paper. It gets paid out after taxes, with identity verification, through a government agency.
- A found Bitcoin block goes directly into your own wallet. No authority, no paperwork, no KYC. True self-custody.
"The network doesn't know the difference between a Nerdaxe in a bedroom and a 100-megawatt ASIC farm."
What This Comparison Is Not
Disclaimer
Solo mining with a small ASIC setup is not a viable way to make money. The expected time until finding the next block is thousands of years. Anyone planning mining as an income source needs industrial scale or a pool. This is an experiment — not an investment, not a recommendation.
Conclusion
Viewed as a lottery, solo mining is statistically far more efficient than a lottery ticket — at lower running costs, with a real Bitcoin jackpot, and with complete self-custody.
It just runs. In the background. On your own node. Without permission.
This is not an investment. This is an experiment in financial sovereignty.
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